Whilst we're in the middle of a pre-Oscar season movie muddle, why not look back to see how I did on my summer box office predictions, based solely on film trailers?
The Fall (right)
Guy stuck in a hospital concocts a fantastic epic for a young fellow patient that springs to colorful life as fiction and real life intertwine. My box office prediction: "Not the best [chance at box office success], especially since it seems to be an indie. But it's got producers David Fincher and Spike Jonze on its side, and that alone could build some buzz." How it did: Its tally so far has been $2 million, and coming from the director of the equally visually captivating The Cell, the special effects alone probably cost way more than that. Not a hit -- one point for me.
Smart People
Dennis Quaid plays a scruffy professor and dour widower who's shaken out of his funk by the arrival of his brother and a new love interest. My box office prediction: "Not great. I got bored with the trailer a half-minute in." How it did: It's raked in only $9 million. Not a hit -- another point for me!
The Happening (above)
People in the Northeast U.S. start droppin' like flies because of some major, mysterious cataclysm. My box office prediction: "Terrific -- it's Shyamalan, after all. ... people still generally run out to catch a Night flick." How it did: I was way off on this one. Critics ripped The Happening a new one. I saw the flick, and it was the best unintentional comedy ever. It drew about $64 million at the box office, a very far cry from earlier Shayamalan blockbusters. Point off for me.
Indiana Jones and the
Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Indy's back, and this time he's looking for something valuable and fighting off bad guys. Oh, yeah, that happens every installment. My box office prediction: "Hmmm, it's a Steven Spielberg, George Lucas and Ford collabo. Box office smashdom is a given." How it did: This was an easy prediction. With an opening of $100 million, this flick proved to be an early summer juggernaut.
The Wackness (above)
Street-smart teen who sells pot out of an Italian ice cart falls head-over-heels for his shrink's stepdaughter. My box office prediction: "I see this as being a great indie hit, but whether it'll break out and slay audiences a la Juno is the big question." How it did: Although the reviews for this film were mostly favorable, it managed only $1.9 million in theaters. Not quite the Juno situation. I saw it and found it lived up to its title -- not dope at all! And another miss for me.
Speed Racer
Cute kid clenches his jaw and drives in a circle against a green screen and wacky visuals. Christina Ricci's forehead and a pet monkey make several appearances. My box office prediction: "Pretty good [chance at box office success]. It doesn't seem to have any major box office competition that week, although the highly anticipated Iron Man, released the week before, and likely aiming at a similar fanboy audience, may still have its grip on the cineplex." How it did: Hmm, I was right and wrong in my prediction: Iron Man proved to be a crushing force -- in its second week, it raked in $50 mil, compared to Speed Racer's opening take of $20 mil. But Speed Racer never recovered from the head-on hit and went on to take in about $44 mil; critics also dinged the movie pretty badly. Far from a hit -- minus for me!
So my summer movie record is 3-for-6 (although if you count the spring hit 21, which I predicted would do OK, that's 4-for-7. And if you generously throw me Speed Racer as a win, that's 5-for-7). But the late-fall/winter awards season will be even trickier -- how do you pick the floperonis in a period when almost every movie that's released is seemingly Oscar bait? I can't wait to try ...
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